基于主被动遥感技术的地表覆被类型变化检测方法——以新疆西天山国家级自然保护区为例

旨在研究主被动遥感结合的地表覆被变化监测方法，使用高分数据和哨兵1号数据分别代表被动和主动遥感，对新疆西天山国家级自然保护区地表覆被变化情况进行检测，进而对得出的林地、草地、建筑物检测结果进行联合分析，最终得到主被动遥感联合变化检测结果。通过实地精度检验对主被动遥感联合变化检测结果进行验证。结果表明，该方法的变化检测结果精度达到90%以上。说明结合主动遥感和被动遥感既能克服天气的影响，又能在检测中保留光谱和纹理等丰富的信息，变化检测的精度较高；主被动遥感联合变化检测可以较为快速、准确地掌握地表覆被类型的变化，能够在一定程度上减少被动遥感数据的云量困扰。并且该方法在林地和建筑物上有较高的敏感性，适合森林自然保护区的森林变化和建筑监测。     

A stochastic surplus production model in continuous time

Surplus production modelling has a long history as a method for managing data‐limited fish stocks. Recent advancements have cast surplus production models as state‐space models that separate random variability of stock dynamics from error in observed indices of biomass. We present a stochastic surplus production model in continuous time (SPiCT), which in addition to stock dynamics also models the dynamics of the fisheries. This enables error in the catch process to be reflected in the uncertainty of estimated model parameters and management quantities. Benefits of the continuous‐time state‐space model formulation include the ability to provide estimates of exploitable biomass and fishing mortality at any point in time from data sampled at arbitrary and possibly irregular intervals. We show in a simulation that the ability to analyse subannual data can increase the effective sample size and improve estimation of reference points relative to discrete‐time analysis of aggregated annual data. Finally, subannual data from five North Sea stocks are analysed with particular focus on using residual analysis to diagnose model insufficiencies and identify necessary model extensions such as robust estimation and incorporation of seasonality. We argue that including all known sources of uncertainty, propagation of that uncertainty to reference points and checking of model assumptions using residuals are critical prerequisites to rigorous fish stock management based on surplus production models.     

Breaking the ice: the introduction of biofouling organisms to Antarctica on vessel hulls

1. Few reports exist that describe marine non‐native species in the Southern Ocean and near‐shore waters around the Antarctic continent. Nevertheless, Antarctica's isolated marine communities, which show high levels of endemism, may be vulnerable to invasion by anthropogenically introduced species from outside Antarctica via vessel hull biofouling.
2. Hull surveys of the British Antarctic Survey's RRS James Clark Ross were undertaken between 2007 and 2014 at Rothera Research Station on the Antarctic Peninsula (Lat. 67°34'S; Long. 68°07'W) to investigate levels of biofouling. In each case, following transit through scouring sea‐ice, over 99% of the vessel hull was free of macroscopic fouling communities. However, in some surveys microbial/algal biofilms, balanomorph barnacles and live individuals of the cosmopolitan pelagic barnacle, Conchoderma auritum were found in the vicinity of intake ports, demonstrating the potential for non‐native species to be transported to Antarctica on vessel hulls.
3. Increasing ship traffic volumes and declining duration of sea ice in waters to the north and west of the Antarctic Peninsula mean the region may be at increased risk of non‐native species introductions. Locations at particular risk may include the waters around popular visitor sites, such as Goudier Island, Neko Harbour, Whalers Bay, Cuverville Island and Half Moon Island, and around northern peninsula research stations.
4. Simple and cost‐effective mitigation measures, such as intentionally moving transiting ships briefly through available offshore sea ice to scour off accessible biofouling communities, may substantially reduce hull‐borne propagule pressure to the region. Better quantification of the risk of marine non‐native species introductions posed by vessel hulls to both Arctic and Antarctic environments, as sea ice patterns and shipping traffic volumes change, will inform the development of appropriate regional and international management responses.

Copyright © 2016 The Authors. Published by Wiley Periodicals, Inc.     

Influence of climate and abundance on migration timing of adult Atlantic salmon (Salmo salar) among rivers in Newfoundland and Labrador

Evidence mounts for the influence of climate variability on temporal trends in the phenology of many organisms including various species of fish. Accordingly, we examined variation in adult Atlantic salmon Salmo salar run timing in thirteen Newfoundland and Labrador rivers where returns were monitored at fishways or fish‐counting fences. Run timing varied significantly among rivers with the median date of return differing by up to 5 weeks. Duration of runs was generally short with most adults returning over a period of three to 5 weeks. A mixed model analysis incorporating a first‐order autoregressive error structure was used to generalise changes in run timing among all monitored rivers. Results indicated that the median date of return has advanced by almost 12 days over a 35‐year interval from 1978 to 2012, while several individual rivers have advanced by almost 21 days. The influence of climate on median timing was evident when the simultaneous effects of both climate and salmon abundance were controlled. We found earlier runs associated with overall warmer climate conditions on the Newfoundland and Labrador Shelf. Results contrast with those from the north‐east Atlantic where Atlantic salmon are returning later in some rivers coincident with warming climate conditions.     

不同贮藏条件下成熟椰子水品质变化规律研究

以成熟椰子水为试验材料，以吸光度、pH、白利糖度和电导率为指标，结合感官评价对 4 个贮藏温度下的椰子水品质变化特点进行分析。结果表明，各处理随贮藏时间延长，吸光值均逐渐增大，pH 值均逐渐减小，电导率呈增大趋势；温度越低，吸光值增大越缓慢和 pH 维持稳定的时间段越长，说明低温更有利于椰子水的贮藏；相同贮藏温度，密封和非密封保存时间无差别，37℃ 可保存 5 h，24℃ 可保存 8 h，14℃ 可保存 22 h，4℃ 可保存 7 d。椰子水的吸光值和 pH 值剧变时间点与椰子水变质时间节点最接近，其中吸光值变化最为显著，吸光值和 pH 变化可作为反映椰子水变质的主要指标；椰子水收集后迅速降至 4℃ 可满足工业生产要求。     

Effect of environmental conditions on the seasonal and inter‐annual variability of small pelagic fish abundance off North‐West Africa: The case of both Senegalese sardinella

The objective of this study was to assess the effect of environmental variations on the abundance of Sardinella aurita and Sardinella maderensis in Senegalese waters in the upwelling system. Monthly data indicating the abundance of sardinella were first estimated from commercial statistics, using Generalized Linear Model from 1966 to 2011. Abundance indices (AIs) were then compared with environmental indices, at the local scale, a Coastal Upwelling Index (CUI) and a coastal Sea Surface Temperature (SST) index, and on a large scale, the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) and the Multivariate El Niño Southern Oscillation Index (MEI), using correlations and times series analyses. The results showed that the abundance of sardinella is determined by a strong seasonal pattern and inter‐annual fluctuations. The abundance of S. aurita peaked in spring and in autumn, whereas that of S. maderensis peaked in the warm season (July–September). The trend of the sardinella abundance was significantly correlated with the CUI, especially in autumn and spring. Interannual fluctuations of S. maderensis and S. aurita abundance are, respectively, driven by the precocity and the duration of the upwelling season that is attributed to distinct migration patterns. Both sardinella species also respond with a delay of around 4 years to the winter NAO index and the autumn CUI, and the AMO index, respectively, both related to migration patterns. The wide variations in sardinella biomass are caused by variations in environmental conditions, which should be considered in the implementation of an ecosystem‐based approach in sardinella stocks management.     

Seasonal variations of immune parameters in the coelomic fluid of sea cucumber Apostichopus japonicus cultured in pond

In order to understand the effects of seasonal change on the immunity of sea cucumber Apostichopus japonicus cultured in pond, A. japonicus with body weight of 12.2 ± 4.5 g (sample A) and 32.6 ± 7.1 g (sample B), respectively, were collected monthly and randomly from a typical pond during a year cycle and employed for the evaluation of immunocompetence. Simultaneously, the environmental factors in the pond including water temperature, pH, salinity and dissolved oxygen (DO) were measured using a handheld multiparameter meter. The activities of acid phosphatase (ACP), alkaline phosphatase (ALP), lysozyme (LYZ), phenoloxidase (PO), superoxide dismutase (SOD), catalase (CAT) and myeloperoxidase (MPO) in the coelomic fluid were selected for the evaluation of A. japonicus immunocompetence and determined using biochemical methods. The results showed that in both samples, the activities of all determined enzymes had small values in winter and early spring, and LYZ, CAT and MPO activities also presented small values in summer, suggesting that pond‐cultured A. japonicus underwent immunosuppression twice during a year cycle, and the immunosuppression occurred in winter and early spring was more severe than that occurred in summer. In addition, most of the determined enzymes showed different variations between the two samples, and had significantly negative correlation with protein concentration, which was significantly and negatively correlated with water temperature, revealing that body weight and water temperature might have crucial effects on the immunity of A. japonicus cultured in pond.     

Effect of climate change on Spodoptera litura Fab. on peanut: A life table approach

Investigations were conducted to understand the direct effects of rising temperature and the host-mediated effects of elevated CO₂ (eCO₂) on Spodoptera litura (Fabricius) (Noctuidae: Lepidoptera). This study involved i. the construction of life tables of S. litura at six constant temperatures viz., 20, 25, 27, 30, 33 and 35°C ± 0.5 °C reared on peanut (Arachis hypogaea L.) grown under eCO₂ (550 ppm) concentration in open top chambers ii. Estimation of threshold temperatures and thermal constants and iii. Prediction of the pest scenarios during near and distant future climate change periods. Significantly lower leaf nitrogen, higher carbon and a higher relative proportion of carbon to nitrogen (C:N) were observed in peanut foliage grown under eCO₂ over ambient CO₂ (aCO₂). The mean development time (days) of each stage, egg, larva, pupa, pre-oviposition and total life span decreased from 20 to 35 °C temperature on eCO₂ foliage. The thermal requirement of S. litura from egg to egg (within the range of 20 °C–35 °C) was 538.5 DD on eCO₂ as against 494.5 DD on aCO₂ foliage. Finite (λ) and intrinsic rates of increase (r_m), net reproductive rate (R_o), mean generation time (T) and doubling time (DT) of S. litura varied significantly with temperature and CO₂ and were found to have quadratic relationships with temperature. The present results on life table parameters estimated by the bootstrap technique showed that the ‘r_m’ values of S. litura on eCO₂ foliage were higher than those in the literature indicating a significant influence of eCO₂. The reduction of ‘T’ was noticed from a maximum of 50 days at 20 °C to minimum of 22 days at 35 °C and ‘λ’ which is the indicator of reproductive value of new eggs was highest at 35 °C and showed a negative relationship with temperature. The data on these life table parameters were plotted against temperature and two non-linear models developed for both CO₂ conditions and used for predicting the pest scenarios. Prediction of pest scenarios based on PRECIS A1B emission scenario data at eleven peanut growing locations of the country during near future (NF) and distant future (DF) climate change periods showed an increase of ‘r_m’ and ‘λ’ with varied ‘R_o’ and reduced ‘T’. The present results indicate that temperature and CO₂ are vital in influencing the growth and life table parameters of S. litura and that pest incidence is likely to be higher in the future.     

全运会竞赛制度变迁方向探索

通过对历届全运会竞赛规程的竞赛举办时间、地点、项目设置、运动员参赛资格、奖励和计分办法等条款进行分析，认 为全运会经过不断演变，已形成奥运会次年办赛、项目设置以夏季奥运项目为主并兼顾民族传统体育项目和全国各地竞争办赛 的特点；运动员交流办法已趋于完善，奥运会成绩计分、两次计分、球类加倍计分等计分办法逐渐演变成我国全会运会特殊的 计分制度。建议将已经有过办赛经验的省、市援助中、西部欠发达地区申办全运会，制定办赛奖励制度；对交流运动员交流年 限延长至一个全运会周期，重视“新型联合培养”；根据全运会发展需要，进一步加大计分奖励力度。     

Climate change impacts and potential benefits of drought and heat tolerance in chickpea in South Asia and East Africa

Using CROPGRO-Chickpea model (revised version), we investigated the impacts of climate change on the productivity of chickpea (Cicer arietinum L.) at selected sites in South Asia (Hisar, Indore and Nandhyal in India and Zaloke in Myanmar) and East Africa (Debre Zeit in Ethiopia, Kabete in Kenya and Ukiriguru in Tanzania). We also investigated the potential benefits of incorporating drought and heat tolerance traits in chickpea using the chickpea model and the virtual cultivars approach. As compared to the baseline climate, the climate change by 2050 (including CO₂) increased the yield of chickpea by 17% both at Hisar and Indore, 18% at Zaloke, 25% at Debre Zeit and 18% at Kabete; whereas the yields decreased by 16% at Nandhyal and 7% at Ukiriguru. The yield benefit due to increased CO₂ by 2050 ranged from 7 to 20% across sites as compared to the yields under current atmospheric CO₂ concentration; while the changes in temperature and rainfall had either positive or negative impact on yield at the sites. Yield potential traits (maximum leaf photosynthesis rate, partitioning of daily growth to pods and seed-filling duration each increased by 10%) increased the yield of virtual cultivars up to 12%. Yield benefit due to drought tolerance across sites was up to 22% under both baseline and climate change scenarios. Heat tolerance increased the yield of chickpea up to 9% at Hisar and Indore under baseline climate, and up to 13% at Hisar, Indore, Nandhyal and Ukiriguru under climate change. At other sites (Zaloke, Debre Zeit and Kabete) the incorporation of heat tolerance under climate change had no beneficial effect on yield. Considering varied crop responses to each plant trait across sites, this study was useful in prioritizing the plant traits for location-specific breeding of chickpea cultivars for higher yields under climate change at the selected sites in South Asia and East Africa.